Bullions
• U.S. Gold
futures settled up 0.54 percent at $1,783 an ounce after hitting the week high
of $1,798.1. Gold prices remained very range bound and kept high whole week as
ECB’s is ready to buy euro zone bonds which will inject liquidity but at the same
time U.S. Unemployment rate fell down sharply to 7.8% causing gold to come
down.
• Gold hit
11-month high earlier this week on Thursday, supported by a broadly stronger
euro, as ECB is ready to buy euro zone bond. But later on Friday gold retreated
to end lower after bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge was dampened by a
surprising drop in U.S. unemployment rate to a four-year low. U.S. data showed
the world's largest economy was not heading back into a recession, and had
encouraged investors to take on riskier bets with equities up.
• In India
MCX prices continued to move lower as INR appreciated sharply to 51.90 in this
week. Further reforms in Insurance and Pension by Indian government kept rupee strong
this week as well.
• For the coming
week we expect gold to be on the downtrend continuing its demise. Steep fall in
U.S. unemployment rate will keep gold prices suppressed for the next week. Even
further appreciation in INR will also push prices lower.
Outlook:
Gold
(December): Gold is expected to move in the range of 30650 - 31550 during the
week ahead.
Silver
(December): Silver is expected to move in the range of 59800 - 63400 during the
week ahead.
Energy
U.S. October
crude, down 2.37 percent for the week, falling 2.18 dollar to settle at $89.92
a barrel. U.S. crude touched $87.70, making two months low.
• Oil prices
fell in volatile trading in the week and posted weekly losses as a fragile
global economy and uncertainty about Europe's debt crisis offset support from a
better-than-expected U.S. employment report.
• Crude oil
prices fell sharply lower to $87.7 earlier this week but later decline in crude
oil inventory and tension in Middle East pulled prices back. U.S. crude oil
stocks declined unexpectedly last week and distillate inventories fell more
steeply than forecast. Domestic stocks of crude dropped by 482,000 barrels in
the week to Sept. 28, the Energy Information Administration reported, despite
an increase in imports.
• For the
coming week we expect crude to be positive as tension in Middle East will boost
prices to move higher and at same time positive Euro zone bond buying can ease
economic uncertainty in the area.
• U.S.
natural gas futures traded higher this week on cool temperature forecast over
the next week. Prices seen some profit taking after making a high near
$3.546bcf on bearish inventory report. Domestic gas inventories rose last week
by 77 billion cubic feet to 3.653 trillion cubic feet.
• Front
month future contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange ended up 2.41% and in
MCX it ended down -0.68% compared to previous week. NYMEX closed at $3.40bcf
after making a high of 3.546bcf. We expect Natural gas to be on the positive
side for the coming week
Outlook:
Crude Oil
(October): Crude is expected to move in the range of Rs 4550 - 4900 during the
week ahead.
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Base Metals
• Copper steadied this week after a surprise drop in the U.S. jobless rate that
signaled economic improvement which could boost metals demand offset fears of
an interruption of looser monetary policies in the U.S. and Chinese holidays.
• China's
appetite for metals however may be muted even when it returns to the market on
Monday given prices are $100 higher this week. U.S. holiday on Monday are also
likely to keep trading quiet.
• For the
coming week Copper prices expected to remain a bit weak but bargain hunting is
expected on lower levels on positive U.S. and Euro Zone sentiments.
•
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange ended at $8257/ton. LME rose
0.48% for the week moving up by $40. In COMEX copper rose by 0.09% moving up
$0.35 showing the closing at $376.
Outlook:
Copper
(November): Copper is expected to move in the range of 425-446 during the week
ahead.
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